Focus on the possibility of congestion caused by typhoons and epidemics
Third quarter domestic port congestion is worthy of attention, but the impact is relatively limited. Asia has ushered in a strong typhoon season, the impact of typhoon on port operation can not be ignored, if the temporary closure of the port will aggravate local sea congestion. However, due to the high efficiency of domestic container terminals, congestion can be quickly relieved, and the impact cycle of typhoons is usually less than 2 weeks, so the impact degree and persistence of domestic congestion are relatively limited. On the other hand, the domestic epidemic has been repeated recently. Although we have not yet seen the tightening of control policies, we cannot rule out the possibility of further deterioration of the epidemic and upgrading of control. However, it is relatively optimistic that the probability of a recurrence of the domestic epidemic from March to May is not high.
Overall, the global container congestion situation is facing the risk of further deterioration, or will intensify the supply side contraction, container supply and demand structure is still tight, there is support below the freight rate. However, as overseas demand is expected to weaken, the peak season demand range and duration may not be as good as last year, and it is difficult for freight rates to rise significantly. Freight rates maintain short-term strong shock. In the near term, the focus has been on changes in the domestic epidemic, labor negotiations in the United States, strikes in Europe and changes in the weather.